"Fuck the Grammys." I know, I know.
But last year's official nomination post generated 2.9k upvotes and 2k comments, so at some point we've just got to admit to ourselves that, at some level, we care about who receives these awards. And so with nomination voting for the 2020 Grammy Awards beginning today, I'm going to present all the eligible albums along with my own analysis of who I think is most likely to receive a nomination.
I made this same post last year when the eligibility period ended and it generated some decent conversation so I figured I'd do it again. You can read that post here. I did okay in my predictions. There were some factors I didn't properly take into account and we now have a larger sample size of the new nomination procedures, all of which I'll get into later. For now, let's look at which albums are going to eligible.
Eligible Albums
| Album | Artist | Billboard 200 | Highest-Charting Single | First Week Sales | Metacritic |
| Championships | Meek Mill | 1 | 6 | 229K | 77 |
| Igor | Tyler, the Creator | 1 | 13 | 165K | 81 |
| Death Race for Love | Juice WRLD | 1 | 27 | 165K | |
| Father of Asahd | DJ Khaled | 2 | 21 | 136K | 59 |
| Skins | XXXTentacion | 1 | 16 | 132K | 44 |
| I Am > I Was | 21 Savage | 1 | 12 | 131K | 81 |
| So Much Fun | Young Thug | 1 | 26 | 131K | 78 |
| Drip Harder | Lil Baby & Gunna | 4 | 4 | 130K | 76 |
| The Search | NF | 1 | 60 | 130K | 56 |
| The Wizrd | Future | 1 | 43 | 126K | 70 |
| Revenge of the Dreamers III | Dreamville | 1 | 4 | 115K | 77 |
| The Big Day | Chance the Rapper | 2 | 58 | 108K | 71 |
| Not All Heroes Wear Capes | Metro Boomin | 1 | 38 | 99K | 78 |
| Quavo Huncho | Quavo | 2 | 48 | 99K | 60 |
| WRLD on Drugs | Future & Juice WRLD | 2 | 26 | 98K | |
| Drip or Drown 2 | Gunna | 3 | 56 | 90K | 76 |
| Hoodie SZN | A Boogie Wit da Hoodie | 2 | 27 | 90K | |
| Rap or Go to the League | 2 Chainz | 4 | 75 | 89K | 82 |
| Father of 4 | Offset | 4 | 39 | 89K | 72 |
| Dying to Live | Kodak Black | 1 | 2 | 89K | |
| Street Gossip | Lil Baby | 2 | 46 | 88K | |
| A Love Letter to You 3 | Trippie Redd | 3 | 52 | 84K | |
| Bad Habits | Nav | 1 | 72 | 82K | 52 |
| Come Over When You're Sober, Pt. 2 | Lil Peep | 4 | 13 | 81K | 79 |
| Crash Talk | ScHoolboy Q | 3 | 55 | 81K | 69 |
| Port of Miami 2 | Rick Ross | 2 | 39 | 80K | 67 |
| Confessions of a Dangerous Mind | Logic | 1 | 5 | 80K | 65 |
| Ginger | Brockhampton | 3 | - | 78K | 72 |
| 7 | Lil Nas X | 2 | 1 | 77K | 57 |
| We Love You Tecca | Lil Tecca | 4 | 4 | 68K | |
| Dummy Boy | 6ix9ine | 2 | 3 | 66K | 38 |
| Control the Streets, Volume 2 | Quality Control Music | 3 | 24 | 63K | 58 |
| Shelby | Lil Skies | 5 | 39 | 54K | |
| TM104L The Legend of the Snowman | Jeezy | 5 | - | 54K | |
| Evil Genius | Gucci Mane | 5 | 11 | 51K | 78 |
| ! | Trippie Redd | 3 | 64 | 51K | 59 |
| Stokeley | Ski Mask the Slump God | 6 | 87 | 51K | |
| The Last Rocket | Takeoff | 4 | 55 | 49K | 82 |
| Harvard Dropout | Lil Pump | 7 | 6 | 48K | 46 |
| Love Songs From the Streets 2 | Lil Durk | 4 | 24 | 44K | 73 |
| Realer | YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 15 | | 43K | |
| The World Is Yours 2 | Rich The Kid | 4 | 80 | 42K | 67 |
| Save Me | Future | 5 | 87 | 42K | 63 |
| TrapStar Turnt PopStar | PnB Rock | 4 | 91 | 42K | |
| Cuz I Love You | Lizzo | 4 | 1 | 41K | 82 |
| 43va Heartless | Moneybagg Yo | 4 | - | 40K | |
| Hotel Diablo | Machine Gun Kelly | 5 | - | 39K | |
| Die a Legend | Polo G | 6 | 11 | 38K | |
| 4Real 4Real | YG | 7 | 49 | 37K | 70 |
| Perfect Ten | Mustard | 8 | 23 | 36K | |
| Delusions of Grandeur | Gucci Mane | 7 | - | 32K | |
| Some Rap Songs | Earl Sweatshirt | 17 | | 29K | 86 |
| Fever | Megan Thee Stallion | 10 | 36 | 28K | 81 |
| Dime Trap | T.I. | 13 | | 27K | 81 |
| Signed to the Streets 3 | Lil Durk | 17 | | 27K | |
| The Lost Boy | YBN Cordae | 13 | | 25K | 81 |
| Mudboy | Sheck Wes | 17 | 6 | 24K | 76 |
| Eyrs | Jaden Smith | 12 | | 24K | 58 |
| Legendary | Tyga | 17 | | 24K | |
| The Lost Tapes 2 | Nas | 10 | - | 23K | 58 |
| K.R.I.T. Iz Here | Big K.R.I.T | 16 | | 22K | 69 |
| mono. | RM | 26 | | 22K | |
| Northbest | Lil Mosey | 29 | | 21K | |
| Still My Moment | Tee Grizzley | 29 | | 21K | |
| Baby on Baby | DaBaby | 7 | 7 | 20K | |
| Bandana | Freddie Gibbs & Madlib | 21 | | 19K | 87 |
| We All Shine | YNW Melly | 27 | | 19K | |
| Trunk Muzik 3 | Yelawolf | 28 | | 19K | |
| Everythings for Sale | Boogie | 28 | | 18K | 82 |
| ZUU | Denzel Curry | 32 | | 17K | 85 |
| 2009 | Wiz Khalifa & Currensy | 35 | | 17K | |
| FM! | Vince Staples | 37 | | 16K | 81 |
| Long Live Mexico | Lil Keed | 26 | | 16K | |
| N9NA | Tech N9ne | 34 | | 16K | |
| Still Swervin | G Herbo | 41 | | 16K | |
| DiCaprio 2 | J.I.D. | 41 | | 15K | 80 |
| Members Only, Vol. 4 | Members Only | 23 | | 15K | |
| Bumps & Bruises | Ugly God | 46 | | 14K | |
| Dirtbag | Blueface | 48 | | 13K | |
| Bawskee 3.5 | Comethazine | 53 | | 13K | |
| Floor Seats | A$AP Ferg | 50 | | 12K | |
| Sensational | Yung Gravy | 52 | | 12K | |
| Grey Area | Little Simz | | | | 91 |
| Eve | Rapsody | 76 | | | 90 |
| Fetti | Currensy & Freddie Gibbs | - | | | 86 |
| Brandon Banks | Maxo Kream | 68 | - | | 84 |
| Nothing Great About Britain | Slowthai | | | | 84 |
| Diaspora | GoldLink | 77 | | | 82 |
| Everything's Corrupt | Ice Cube | 62 | | | 79 |
| Hoodies All Summer | Kano | - | - | | 79 |
| Still Summer in the Projects | 03 Greedo | | | | 79 |
| Ignorance Is Bliss | Skepta | - | | | 78 |
| Eden | Cupcakke | - | | | 77 |
| Arizona Baby | Kevin Abstract | 53 | | | 76 |
| Malibu Ken | Malibu Ken | 176 | | | 76 |
| Injury Reserve | Injury Reserve | - | | | 75 |
| Czarface Meets Ghostface | Czarface & Ghostface Killah | - | | | 72 |
| Let Love | Common | 118 | | | 70 |
| In My Defense | Iggy Azalea | 50 | | | 39 |
| Nuthin' 2 Prove | Lil Yachty | 12 | 91 | | |
| Fully Loaded | Shy Glizzy | 35 | | | |
| Fearless Fred Fury | Insane Clown Posse | 44 | | | |
| Creed II: The Album | Mike Will Made It | 49 | | | |
| Generation Nightmare | Twiztid | 51 | | | |
| Gangland Landlord | Mozzy | 57 | | | |
| MihTy | MihTy | 60 | | | |
| Bawskee 2 | Comethazine | 61 | | | |
| The Sailor | Rich Brian | 62 | | | |
| Girl Code | City Girls | 63 | 26 | | |
| Practice Makes paper | E-40 | 65 | | | |
| Creeker II | Upchurch | 66 | | | |
| Fly Times Vol 1: The Good Fly Young | Wiz Khalifa | 70 | | | |
| Poison | Swizz Beats | 73 | | | |
| Ain't No Going Back | Yella Beezy | 76 | | | |
| I Wanna Thank Me | Snoop Dogg | 76 | | | |
| Icy | Saweetie | 89 | 21 | | |
| Sincerely, Tokyo | MadeinTYO | 98 | | | |
| Antares | Kris Wu | 100 | | | |
| El Capo | Jim Jones | 114 | | | |
| The Sunset Tapes: A Cool Tape Story | Jaden Smith | 117 | | | |
| The One | Trina | 126 | | | |
| GloToven | Chief Keef & Zaytoven | 153 | | | |
| Immigrant | Belly | 169 | | | |
| Pieces of a Man | Mick Jenkins | | | | |
| A Short Story About War | Shad | | | | |
| White Bronco | Action Bronson | | | | |
| Leave Me the Fuck Alone | wifisfuneral | | | | |
| Hood Baby | Lil Gotit | | | | |
| Mega EP | Cormega | | | | |
| Big Dreez | Dreezy | | | | |
| Sincerely, the P | People Under the Stars | | | | |
| Crazy But It's True | Lil Gotit | | | | |
| Vernia | Erick Sermon | | | | |
| TrillStatik | Bun B & Statik Selektah | | | | |
| Hybrid | Collie Buddz | | | | |
| Keith | Kool Keith | | | | |
| The Fifth | Obie Trice | | | | |
| Big Bad… | Giggs | | | | |
| Return of the SP1200 | Pete Rock | | | | |
| Misunderstood | Yung Bans | | | | |
Shout out to /u/Chriscftb97 for making it easy to find all these first week numbers thanks to his posts.
Before we move on to which of these albums are most likely to be nominated, it's important to look back at who and how the Grammy's have chosen to nominate. So below are the results of the 2012-2019 Best Rap Album nomination field, along with some key metrics about each album.
2019
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| Invasion of Privacy | Cardi B | 255k | 1 | 1 | 84 |
| Astroworld | Travis Scott | 537k | 1 | 1 | 84 |
| Daytona | Pusha-T | 77k | 3 | 65 | 86 |
| Swimming | Mac Miller | 66k | 3 | 33 | 78 |
| Victory Lap | Nipsey Hussle | 53k | 4 | - | 80 |
2018
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| DAMN | Kendrick Lamar | 603k | 1 | 1 | 95 |
| 4:44 | Jay-Z | 262k | 1 | 23 | 82 |
| Culture | Migos | 131k | 1 | 1 | 79 |
| Laila's Wisdom | Rapsody | 17k | 125 | - | 87 |
| Flower Boy | Tyler, the Creator | 106k | 2 | 87 | 84 |
2017
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| Coloring Book | Chance the Rapper | 38k | 8 | 43 | 89 |
| And the Anonymous Nobody... | De La Soul | 23k | 12 | - | 77 |
| Major Key | DJ Khaled | 96k | 1 | 13 | 67 |
| Views | Drake | 1040k | 1 | 1 | 69 |
| Blank Face LP | ScHoolboy Q | 74k | 2 | 40 | 81 |
| The Life of Pablo | Kanye West | 94k | 1 | 34 | 75 |
2016
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| To Pimp A Butterfly | Kendrick Lamar | 324k | 1 | 39 | 96 |
| 2014 Forest Hills Drive | J. Cole | 371k | 1 | 36 | 67 |
| Compton | Dr Dre | 295k | 2 | - | 82 |
| If You're Reading This It's Too Late | Drake | 535k | 1 | 26 | 78 |
| The Pinkprint | Nicki Minaj | 244k | 2 | 2 | 70 |
2015
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| The Marshall Mathers LP 2 | Eminem | 792k | 1 | 1 | 72 |
| The New Classic | Iggy Azalea | 52k | 3 | 1 | 56 |
| Nobody's Smiling | Common | 24k | 6 | - | 78 |
| Because the Internet | Childish Gambino | 96k | 7 | 64 | 64 |
| Blacc Hollywood | Wiz Khalifia | 90k | 1 | 43 | 54 |
| Oxymoron | ScHoolboy Q | 139k | 1 | 38 | 78 |
2014
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| The Heist | Macklemore | 78k | 2 | 1 | 74 |
| Nothing Was the Same | Drake | 658k | 1 | 4 | 79 |
| Magna Carta Holy Grail | Jay-Z | 528k | 1 | 4 | 60 |
| Good Kid, M.A.A.D City | Kendrick Lamar | 242k | 2 | 17 | 91 |
| Yeezus | Kanye West | 327k | 1 | 56 | 84 |
2013
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| Take Care | Drake | 631k | 1 | 7 | 78 |
| Based on a T.R.U. Story | 2 Chainz | 147k | 1 | 24 | 55 |
| Food & Liquor II | Lupe Fiasco | 96k | 5 | 71 | 70 |
| Life is Good | Nas | 149k | 1 | - | 81 |
| God Forgives, I Don't | Rick Ross | 218k | 1 | 71 | 70 |
| Undun | The Roots | 48k | 17 | - | 88 |
2012
| Album | Artist | First Week Sales | Billboard 200 | Highest Charting Single | Metacritic Rating |
| My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy | Kanye West | 496k | 1 | 12 | 94 |
| Lasers | Lupe Fiasco | 204k | 1 | 9 | 57 |
| Watch the Throne | Jay-Z and Kanye West | 436k | 1 | 5 | 76 |
| Pink Friday | Nicki Minaj | 375k | 1 | 3 | 68 |
| Tha Carter IV | Lil Wayne | 964k | 1 | 3 | 60 |
From the creation of the Best Rap Album category until the 2017 Grammys, the nominations for the award were selected by a standard vote of all eligible members. Whichever albums received the most votes also received nominations. As anyone can see, that worked…poorly. All to often, the nominations did not represent the best the genre had to offer.
That is why, starting with the 2018 Grammy's, the Recording Academy create a Rap Nominations Committee. For the past two years, members of the Academy have voted on all eligible albums and then the nomination committee takes those votes and chooses the final nominations. You can see the process visualized here. The Senior VP of the Recording Academy talks about it in an interview with Variety here.
"For Rap, and the other categories to a degree, a lot of their argument was kind of similar — it was going more to big-name folks and felt like more of a popularity contest. That's not to say that someone who's very famous can't put out a fantastic track or album, but maybe some younger up-and-coming folks deserve that spotlight."
You can see that change reflected in the past couple years of nominations and get a sense for the type of albums they like to choose.
The committee now places much more emphasis on critical success and being, you know, and actually good album rather than commercial success, name recognition, or past Grammy success; this becomes evident with Drake, Eminem, and Kanye all being shut out of the category last year. Before last year, the average Metacritic score for an album receiving a Best Rap Album nomination from 2012-2017 was 74, with one-third of the nominated albums being below a 70. Since the change, the lowest Metacritic rating for a nominated album was Mac Miller's Swimming which received a 78. Between 2012-2017, 58% of nominations had a score below 78.
So, although we can still complain about who ultimately wins the award, the process for selecting nominations has become much better. The committee seems to select a healthy mix of well-received, commercially successful albums, along with one or two albums that were less commercially successful but highly regarded by critics and the hip-hop community. So now let's look at the albums that fit these criteria.
It's worth noting that last year I included the number of previous nominations and wins in my assessment of which albums were likely to be nominated. The thought was that Grammy voters had patterns and favorites that needed to be taken into account. Now, with the nomination committee having final say, I've decided to remove those categories as I feel they're no longer relevant.
Commercial and Critical Success
CHAMPIONSHIPS - MEEK MILL
- First Week Sales - 229k
- Billboard 200 - 1
- Highest Charting Single - 6
- Metacritic Rating - 77
Before last year, an eligibility period's highest-selling album had never not received a nomination. That changed last year with Scorpion. With only two years of data on the new nomination committee it's impossible to know whether this is the new norm or an anomaly. What we do know is that Meek Mill's Championships was much more well-received than Scorpion. As a whole, Meek has a ton of good will within the industry at the moment. His incarceration and political activism has made him into a champion of criminal justice reform and a figure to be celebrated. That celebration could very well lead to a Best Rap Album nomination.
IGOR - TYLER, THE CREATOR
- First Week Sales - 165k
- Billboard 200 - 1
- Highest Charting Single - 13
- Metacritic Rating - 81
The committee have already nominated Tyler once before in 2018 for Flower Boy. Tyler returns in 2019 with Igor, an album much more ambitious than his previous. However, that ambition could end up working against Tyler here.
For last year's Grammy's, Post Malone was disqualified from the Rap categories. You can read the reasoning here.
Malone was also a hot topic at the Grammys meeting for his recent album, "Beerbongs & Bentleys," which was kicked out of the rap category and pushed into the pop genre, the source said. Best rap album nominees must contain 51 percent or more of rap music, and the Grammys rap committee felt "Beerbongs" leaned more toward the pop genre with its the production, sound and melodies. The diverse album also includes singing, elements of R&B and rock and veers outside of rap with songs like the guitar-tinged "Stay." The person said the larger Grammys committee listened to the entire 18-track album — which includes the No. 1 hits "Rockstar" and "Psycho" as well as "Better Now," currently No. 4 on Billboard's Hot 100 chart — and voted that it would compete in pop instead of rap..
Best rap album nominees must contain 51 percent or more of rap music…
Is Igor 51 percent or more rap music? Honestly, it's hard for me to say. What exactly counts as "rap music". I don't know. But there is a chance that Igor befalls the same fate as Beerbongs and Bentleys.
I AM > I WAS - 21 SAVAGE
- First Week Sales - 131k
- Billboard 200 - 1
- Highest Charting Single - 12
- Metacritic Rating - 81
21 Savage's I Am > I Was titled proved to be true. The rapper's second album became more commercially and critically successfully than his debut Issa Album. The rapper showed growth in his flow and subject matter. People that had written him off as nothing more than a gangster, mumble rapper began to come around and appreciate the artist's output. Furthermore, 21 was being held in ICE detention during last year's ceremony. Having him sitting in the audience having received a nomination would be a great storyline for the awards show.
SO MUCH FUN - YOUNG THUG
- First Week Sales - 131k
- Billboard 200 - 1
- Highest Charting Single - 26
- Metacritic Rating - 78
That's right, Young Thug is actually, legitimately in contention to receive a Grammy nomination for an album. The rapper who opened last year's award show with a performance with Camila Cabello, may very well be sitting in the audience this year hoping to hear his name called. Young Thug finally submitted to a normal album rollout and it paid off in spades, as his first week sales soared to a level that all but the most ardent fans thought impossible for the artist. While not Thug's most well-received album, So Much Fun is by far his most relevant, and in that regard makes him more likely to receive a nomination than ever before. The committee may also take into account the vast influence Thug has had over the genre without receiving much at all official recognition and decide to rectify that themselves by nominated his newest album.
RAP OR GO TO THE LEAGUE - 2 CHAINZ
- First Week Sales - 89k
- Billboard 200 - 4
- Highest Charting Single - 75
- Metacritic Rating - 82
At this point in his career, 2 Chainz has become an elder statesman of hip-hop. Rap or Go to the League reflects that. It is by far Chainz most mature album to date. Maintaining his signature charm and charisma on the mic, 2 Chainz dives into more serious subject matter on the type of production we're not accustomed to hearing the artist formally known as Titty Boi rap over. This is the type of successful, yet still overlooked, album that the nomination committee has chosen to award in the past (see Nipsey Hussle's Victory Lap)
CUZ I LOVE YOU - LIZZO
- First Week Sales - 41k
- Billboard 200 - 4
- Highest Charting Single - 1
- Metacritic Rating - 82
Out of every eligible album, Cuz I Love You is the most likely to receive a nomination. White, suburban moms love Lizzo. New thinkpieces praising Lizzo are written every day. She's got the #1 song in the country at the time of voting. Her album has been steady in the top 6 of the Billboard 200 for months. It also bears stating that the two years the committee has been in place have feature albums by female MCs. There's no way to know whether this is intentional or not, but it is a trend and trends are worth paying attention to. Now, that's not to say that either Rapsody or Cardi's album were unworthy of receiving a nomination, because they both were. And by all accounts Cuz I Love You is worthy too.
Critically and Moderately Commercially Successful
BANDANA - FREDDIE GIBBS & MADLIB
- First Week Sales - 19k
- Billboard 200 - 21
- Highest Charting Single - N/A
- Metacritic Rating - 87
Bandana would be the first collaboration since Watch the Throne to receive a nomination. It is no doubt deserving though. Freddie Gibbs has a long history of producing high-quality music, and Bandana received the highest Metacritic rating of his impressive catalogue. Bandana's nomination could be a culmination; a recognition of the years of work Gibbs and Madlib have both produced and a rewarding of their best work to date.
ZUU - DENZEL CURRY
- First Week Sales - 17k
- Billboard 200 - 32
- Highest Charting Single - N/A
- Metacritic Rating - 85
ZUU represents a step up both commercially and critically for Denzel Curry from TA13OO, if only moderately. Still, with an extra year of credibility to his name, the committee may be more likely to give Curry a nomination than with his debut album.
SOME RAP SONGS - EARL SWEATSHIRT
- First Week Sales - 17k
- Billboard 200 - 17
- Highest Charting Single - N/A
- Metacritic Rating - 85
This may be the most inaccessible and shortest album to ever receive a nomination if it were to be honored. But, hey, it could happen. Other former Odd Future members Tyler And Frank Ocean are no stranger to the Grammys and Some Rap Songs is the highest-rated album of Earl's career…so why not.
Only Critically Successful
EVE - RAPSODY
- First Week Sales - N/A
- Billboard 200 - 76
- Highest Charting Single - N/A
- Metacritic Rating - 90
Eve is both more commercially and critically successful than Laila's Wisdom, which received a nomination in 2018. What's unknown is how willing the committee is to nominate the same artists multiple times. While in years past the nominations would be filled with same names year after year after year, the committee was specifically created to give other artists a chance at a nomination. How will they go about fulfilling this duty? By spreading nominations out among a multitude of different artists that would've otherwise been snubbed, or by simply rewarding the most well-received albums no matter the names attached? It's yet to be seen.
BRANDON BANKS - MAXO KREAM
- First Week Sales - N/A
- Billboard 200 - 68
- Highest Charting Single - N/A
- Metacritic Rating - 84
Maxo Kream is still relatively unknown to the hip-hop and music community at large. However, the committee could use Brandon Banks as his introduction to the masses.
